The new Wisconsin swing state poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump, but experts advise caution.
At a Glance
- Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by 4 points in Wisconsin.
- Poll director warns results may change by Election Day.
- Wisconsin’s same-day voter registration may impact results.
- Polling methodologies have been adjusted since 2016.
Poll Results and Cautionary Advice
Vice President Kamala Harris currently leads former President Donald Trump by 4 points in a hypothetical matchup in Wisconsin, according to a survey conducted by the Marquette University Law School.
That’s not good.
The poll surveyed 882 registered voters from September 18 to 26. However, Charles Franklin, the poll director, advises caution, noting potential changes leading up to the November 5 Election Day.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dijmwgDv08A
Franklin emphasizes that past polling inaccuracies, with a 4-point error margin in 2020 and over 6 points in 2016, indicate a need for tempered expectations about current data. He points out adjustments to methodologies have been ongoing to better capture support for candidates like Trump.
https://twitter.com/Newsweek/status/1841750396798136582
Potential Influences on Election Day
Wisconsin’s unique same-day voter registration system could significantly influence the final turnout and results. The number of registered voters is projected to rise by November, but Franklin admits the exact figures remain uncertain. He highlights that after elections, voter rolls typically undergo a lengthy process of updates that may impact evaluation interpretations.
The poll findings align with the collective analysis from FiveThirtyEight, placing Harris with an average lead over Trump of 1.8 percentage points in Wisconsin.
So Trump has some work to do. Not a huge amount, but some.
https://twitter.com/FinFox2/status/1841675783149850987
We will soon see, however, just how accurate these polls are. The truth is that polls frequently fail to determine exactly how much support Trump really has, given how scared people often are to tell pollsters who they really support.