(FiveNation.com)- According to panel of expert pollsters, the accuracy of the 2020 election polling plummeted to a 40-year low.
2016 was bad. But 2020 was far worse.
In 2016, polling outlets were off by 1.3 percent. But in 2020 the discrepancy increased threefold to 3.9 percent.
One theory this panel floated as to why the 2020 numbers were so far afield is the lack of cooperation from Trump voters. The panel concludes that those supporting President Trump’s reelection were not inclined to answer pollster’s questions.
Because the majority of those who refused to answer were Republicans, the panel concluded that societal pressures and nervousness over acknowledging their support for President Trump may be to blame for the polling inaccuracy.
Likewise, President Trump’s own complaints about the accuracy of polling may also have led to his supporters’ refusal to participate in election polls. But considering the panel is made up of pollsters, that excuse should probably be taken with a grain of salt. After all, whom are they more likely to blame for their failures? Trump? Or themselves?
Despite admitting the miserable accuracy of the 2020 polling, it doesn’t appear pollsters are doing anything to correct the problem.
In mid-December, the Hill released an approval poll for President-Elect Joe Biden that purported to show him with a 60% approval rating.
Rich Baris, a pollster who fared far better than most during the 2020 election tweeted out the Hill’s poll saying, “If you can’t poll an election correctly, then why on Earth would you think you can poll any issue of public opinion correctly?”
“Elections are the only test of a pollster’s accuracy,” Baris continued, “and all but a few failed again.”
Of course another example of skewed polling came last month when CBS News conducted a poll of President Biden’s first address to Congress. That poll showed a whopping 85% of those who watched approved of the speech.
The sampling used in that CBS poll was unbelievably skewed. Of the 943 people sampled in the poll, 54% were Democrats while only 18% were Republicans.
Pollsters can review their failings all they want. But until they actually make efforts to improve their methodology, nothing is going to change.
