Independents Overwhelmingly Choose Trump Over Biden

According to a poll by The Economist and YouGov, independents are more inclined to support former President Donald Trump than vice president Joe Biden.

38% of respondents think Trump will win the 2024 presidential election. In line with this view, an earlier poll indicated that 38% of independents, irrespective of their leaning, think Trump has a better chance of winning the election. Taken between December 16 and 18, 2023, among 1,500 adult U.S. residents, the poll followed the publication of the contentious decision by the Colorado Supreme Court that barred Trump from being included on the state’s ballot.

Liberal judges in Colorado are doing the right thing without even realizing it, according to Trump lawyer Alina Habba, who claims this will rally Trump’s supporters and sway independents to vote for him. Following Biden’s 65% support from the same demographic in 2020, another poll indicated that 39% of Hispanic voters would choose Trump over Biden (34% to 34%, respectively). A quarter fewer Black people supported Biden than in 2020 (63% vs.14%), while thirteen percent of Black voters said they would back Trump (13%).

Only 33% of young people questioned said they would vote for Biden, while 37% said they would vote for Trump—a significant decline from Biden’s previously commanding advantage. As little as 18% of Biden’s supporters rate themselves as a “10” on an excitement scale, a significant problem for him due to the enthusiasm gap.

The outcomes are derived from a hypothetical vote that includes the current party leaders, Trump and Biden, and third-party contenders, Jill Stein, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and Cornel West. After eliminating the third-party candidates from the ballot, Trump maintains a lead over Biden in all seven swing states. The contest in Georgia is close, with just six percentage points separating the two contenders.