California’s High-Speed Rail Project has burned through $15 billion over 16 years with zero tracks laid as its completion date continues to slip further into the future.
At a Glance
- The project originally promised completion by 2020 at a cost of $33 billion but is now projected for 2045 at over $100 billion
- New CEO Ian Choudri admitted the project needs complete restructuring after years of mismanagement
- The state is out of bond money and needs a financing plan by mid-2026 to avoid losing $4 billion in federal funding
- Despite mounting costs and delays, 54% of Californians still support the troubled project
- A similar high-speed rail project in Florida was completed in just four years at a cost of $6 billion
A Derailed Timeline
California voters approved a public bond covering approximately one-third of the estimated cost for a high-speed rail system in 2008. The initial promise was ambitious: a sleek bullet train connecting Los Angeles and San Francisco by 2020 at a cost of $33 billion. Fast forward to today, and the California High-Speed Rail Authority has spent approximately $15 billion with not a single mile of track laid. The project faces a federal investigation and potential withdrawal of funds as costs have more than tripled to over $100 billion, with completion now projected for 2045.
The Trump administration has launched a review of California’s high-speed rail project, adding to long-standing doubts about whether the venture, plagued by cost overruns and delays, will ever be completed. https://t.co/Devt2qnoF1 via @citylab
— Bloomberg (@business) February 20, 2025
The struggles began early as the project faced legal challenges and encountered unexpected difficulties acquiring land in the Central Valley. The Obama administration provided significant funding through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, but those federal dollars came with strings attached – they required matching funds from California and mandated work begin in economically disadvantaged areas rather than at the logical endpoints of Los Angeles and San Francisco.
Political Reshaping and Mounting Costs
Governor Gavin Newsom significantly altered the project’s trajectory in 2019, effectively scaling back ambitions by focusing on a 172-mile stretch between Merced and Bakersfield – hardly the transformative Los Angeles to San Francisco connection voters approved. This shift raised questions about whether the project would ever fulfill its original promise and underscored the political challenges facing the endeavor.
“There simply isn’t a path to get from Sacramento to San Diego, let alone from San Francisco to LA, I wish there were,” said Gavin Newsom.
The primary cost drivers remain the expensive tunnels required to access Los Angeles and San Francisco. Engineers must contend with challenging terrain, including mountain ranges and densely populated urban areas. These infrastructure challenges have contributed to the project’s ballooning price tag, which now stands at over $100 billion – more than triple the initial estimate provided to voters.
Commentary:
President Donald Trump denounced California’s bullet train for the project’s delays and rising costs on Tuesday, and said his administration would investigate how billions of federal and state dollars have been spent. https://t.co/jI3NkjIIC8
📝 Dan Walters
— CalMatters (@CalMatters) February 6, 2025
New Leadership, Same Problems
The appointment of Ian Choudri as the new CEO has not assuaged growing concerns. Rather than providing reassurance, Choudri acknowledged the depth of the project’s problems, saying, “We started this one, and we are not succeeding. That was the main reason for me to say, let’s go in, completely turn it around, and put it back to where it should have been. Fix all the issues, get the funding stabilized, and demonstrate to the rest of the world that when we decide that we want to do it, we actually will do it.”
The financial outlook remains precarious. The state has exhausted its voter-approved bond funds and now relies primarily on California’s cap-and-trade carbon auction program. Officials must develop a viable financing plan for even the Central Valley segment by mid-2026 or risk losing $4 billion in federal funding. This financial uncertainty comes after the project already faced potential loss of federal support during the Trump administration.
A Study in Contrasts
The inefficiency of California’s high-speed rail project becomes particularly stark when compared to similar endeavors elsewhere. Florida completed its Brightline high-speed rail connection in just four years at a total cost of $6 billion – less than half of what California has already spent without laying a single track. This contrast raises serious questions about management practices, regulatory burdens, and political priorities in California.
Despite these challenges, public support for the project remains surprisingly resilient, with 54% of Californians still backing it. The initial operating segment between Merced and Bakersfield is projected to begin service in 2030, though skepticism abounds given the project’s track record of missed deadlines and cost overruns. Whether this mammoth infrastructure undertaking will ever fulfill its original promise remains one of California’s most contentious political and economic questions.
