College closures are on the rise as demographic shifts and vocational training interest lead to declining enrollments, threatening the future of higher education institutions across America.
At a Glance
- College enrollment has fallen by 15% since 2010, with freshman intake at its lowest since the pandemic
- Up to 80 additional colleges may be forced to shut down if the downward trend continues
- Small private liberal arts schools are particularly affected, while flagship public institutions grow
- Enrollment in vocational schools increased by 16% in 2023, indicating a shift in educational preferences
- Closures and mergers significantly impact local communities economically
The Enrollment Cliff
The American higher education landscape is facing a critical juncture as colleges and universities grapple with an accelerating trend of closures. A recent report by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia paints a grim picture, suggesting that up to 80 schools could be in jeopardy if current enrollment trends persist. This dire prediction comes as no surprise to education experts who have been monitoring the steady decline in college enrollment over the past decade.
The numbers are stark: total college and university enrollment has plummeted by 15% from 2010 to 2021. More alarmingly, freshman enrollment has seen a sharp decline of over 5%, reaching its lowest point since the COVID-19 pandemic. This downward spiral is attributed to a complex interplay of factors, including demographic shifts, changing perceptions about the value of higher education, and the rising popularity of vocational training.
As colleges deal with declining enrollment caused both by a demographic cliff leading to fewer high school graduates and by fewer students choosing to enroll, more colleges are choosing to close or merge. #GreatCollegeAdvice #CollegeClosures #HigherEdhttps://t.co/PgynfqBwJw
— Great College Advice (@collegeadvice) October 25, 2024
Demographic Challenges and Shifting Preferences
One of the primary drivers of this enrollment crisis is the looming “demographic cliff.” As the number of high school graduates is projected to decline in the coming years, colleges are bracing for an even steeper drop in their potential student pool. This demographic shift is not uniform across the country, with some regions expected to be hit harder than others.
“There was a steeper decline during COVID, and most people think we aren’t going back to those levels for a range of reasons,” said David Attis, Managing Director of Research at Educational Consultant EAB. “We’ve got a demographic decline in most parts of the country and the so-called ‘demographic cliff’ coming up in the next couple of years where we’re going to see an even steeper drop in the number of 18- to 22-year-olds. The percentage of recent high school graduates who decide to go to any college has also been declining.”
Adding to the enrollment woes is a noticeable shift in educational preferences among young Americans. While traditional college enrollment dwindles, vocational schools are experiencing a surge in popularity. In 2023, enrollment in vocational programs jumped by 16%, with a notable 23% increase in students pursuing construction-related trades. This trend reflects a growing skepticism about the value proposition of a four-year college degree and a renewed interest in skilled trades that offer more immediate employment prospects.
Financial Strain and Institutional Responses
The financial implications of these enrollment declines are severe, particularly for smaller, private liberal arts colleges that heavily rely on tuition revenue. As student numbers dwindle, so do the funds necessary to keep these institutions operational. The situation has been exacerbated by the drying up of COVID-19 relief funds, which temporarily bolstered many colleges’ finances during the pandemic.
In response to these challenges, many institutions are being forced to make difficult decisions. Some are resorting to program cuts or mergers to stay afloat, while others are facing the prospect of closure. The decision to close a college is never taken lightly, as evidenced by the closure of Goddard College.
“The decision to close Goddard College was not made easily or quickly. With declining enrollment and financial insolvency looming, the Board was left with no other option. Our hearts are broken,” said Mark Jones, Chair of the Goddard Board.
As the higher education sector grapples with these challenges, the impact extends beyond campus boundaries. College closures and mergers can have significant economic repercussions for local communities, where these institutions often serve as major employers.
