A Northwestern University data scientist has pinpointed the moment Donald Trump lost his momentum, and Kamala Harris turned the tide in her favor. Tom Miller said Harris’s popularity began to rise on July 31, immediately after Donald Trump appeared on a Chicago stage with members of the National Association of Black Journalists. That event, rather than the Philadelphia debate, is where it started to go wrong for the former President, and it has continued to spiral from there, Miller said. Harris’s performance in Philadelphia was, however, another notable moment.
Mr. Miller predicts a Kamala Harris victory but does not base this prediction on polls. Instead, he uses the PredictIt betting site, arguing that the data is far more reliable and gives a more accurate picture. Around 37,000 bets are placed there daily, with an $850 limit meaning odds cannot be artificially inflated.
The data scientist considers betting odds a trustworthy indicator of future events because they are forward-looking and involve investors taking a financial punt on what they believe is going to happen. Polls, on the other hand, look backward and encompass no financial consequence, meaning individuals are less likely to thoroughly consider their point of view. Mr. Miller says betting odds have accurately predicted election results for decades.
On September 23, Miller revised his prediction from a 277 electoral college vote win for Harris to 327. The increase is based on several factors, including Harris’s debate performance, Taylor Swift’s endorsement, and the Vice President’s positive messaging compared to Donald Trump’s “failing nation” rhetoric. Additionally, inflation fell to a three-year low in August, shredding Trump’s economic advantage.
Miller is not the only person now predicting a Harris victory. Allan Lichtman has famously called the election correctly for decades using a list of criteria he applies to each candidate. A professor of history at the American University, Mr. Lichtman describes the 2024 contest as extraordinary and unprecedented, with a former Republican President carrying criminal convictions facing a Vice President who was not expected to be the Democratic candidate.
Using his “13 keys,” which cover everything from economic policy to charisma, Lichtman has called the election for Harris.
