(FiveNation.com)- Historically, Midterm elections during the first term of a new president do not go well for the party holding the White House. In the 2018 Midterm, President Trump’s party lost the House majority to the Democrats. In the 2010 Midterm, President Obama’s party was annihilated in the Tea Party revolution. The same thing happened during the 1994 Midterm during Bill Clinton’s first term.
And as things stand today, it is looking more and more like 2022 will be as brutal for the Democrats, if not more so, than both 1994 and 2010.
In a survey released on Friday by CNN of all places, registered voters are evenly split on whether they would support a Republican or a Democrat. This is quite a change from recent polling from CNN.
Respondents were asked to choose which party they would vote for if the 2022 Midterms were held today. Forty-five percent of registered voters chose Democrats and 44 percent chose Republicans.
In October of last year, a similar CNN poll for 2020 showed that 54 percent of respondents would vote Democrat and 42 percent would vote Republican. In reality, Republicans picked up seats in the House in 2020 leaving the Democrats with only a razor thin majority.
CNN polling tends to use skewed methodology – often heavily over-sampling Democrats. But even with this skewed polling, the 45 to 44 split should set off alarm bells for Democrats heading into next year.
In a Rasmussen poll from July, sixty percent of likely voters said that the Republicans would retake the House next year.
And in an op-ed at The Hill over the weekend, Democrat strategist Douglas Schoen warned the Democrats that, given the President’s cratering poll numbers especially in swing states, there is big trouble brewing for the Democrats in 2022.
Harkening back to the Tea Party revolution of 2010, Schoen noted that Obama’s net approval rating was 19 points higher than Biden’s is right now. And despite that, Democrats lost 64 seats in the House and six seats in the Senate in 2010.
During the 1994 blowout during Bill Clinton’s first term, Democrats lost 52 seats in the House and eight seats in the Senate.
Schoen points out that both in 1994 and in 2010, voters used the Midterm elections to show their objection to enormous spending bills and tax increases – two things the Democrat-led House and Senate are pushing through again today. Schoen believes a similar “electoral backlash” is in store for 2022.